Expert Advisor :: Forex Expert Advisors :: MetaTrader Expert

Expert Advisor performance expectancy (part 4)

Borys F — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 04:28:57 GMT

What is the calculation for the Expert Advisor performance expectancy?

The calculation for expert advisor expectancy is as follows. At the same time, refer to following schedule to see how mock EA is evaluated based on their expectancy rate.
(Accuracy x Average win) / ((1- Accuracy) x Average loss)

Example 2: The Performance Expectancy

	Winning Trades	Losing Trades	Accuracy	Average Win	Average Loss	Expectancy
EA 1	230	195	54.12%	3.1	2.9	1.26
EA 2	172	280	38.05%	4.4	2.4	1.13
EA 3	395	120	76.70%	1.5	5.3	0.93

Just like in Example 1 : The Drawdown & Profitability Factor, the final sum , which in this case is ‘Expectancy’, shows that anything above 1 is good. In this sense, it reflects net positive return on the account over the measured period. In other words, expectancy can be considered as average amount gained per trade. The more trade data included in the analysis the greater the variance.
Although EA performance can be judge using the expectancy rate, you have to remember it only reflects the overall view per trade. It does not reflect the actual performance of each trade. For instance, a scalping EA will probably have low expectancy. In this case, let us consider an expectancy of 1.15. Even though the number is low number, it should generate a large amount of trades in a period. More trade usually creates a sizable gain.
Now, if you compare this to a significant EA with an expectancy of 5.75, which only generates a few trades during the same period, you would probably reject the scalping EA. In this case, you had probably missed a potentially better EA, if you ignore the nature of the EA and its total profit. Therefore, if have a need to compare, do not compare similar EA. The one that you screened out would probably better from the one that you are left with to do further comparison.

What do we have learn so far?

You started with understanding that you need to learn how to read trading statistic.
With that, you moved to learning how to measure your profitability. There are two major percentages or rate that you need to look at; the drawdown percentage and the expectancy rate. You discern the results on max, average and the recovery drawdown of the EA. Then you moved on to learn how the MT4 EA accuracy and win/loss ratio. Using this data, you discern performance expectancy MT4 EA.
By combining both quantifiable data, you have an idea on which MT4 EA to choose. Probably, by now you will have a list.
However, there is another part of choosing the right MT4 EA that we have not explore yet. This is the intangible or qualitative factor.

Best Forex Robot 2011

Choosing a Metatrader Expert Advisor (part 3)

Borys F — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 04:54:33 GMT

How accurate is the MT4 EA and what is their Win/Lose Ratio.

Now that you already screened out MT4 EA that does not suits you, it is time to compare the remaining MT4 EA in your list. The comparison variable this time would be on performance accuracy and expectancy. When the MT4 EA place a trade, there is a possibility of win or loss. The performance accuracy dictates the percentage of winning trades vs. losing trades.

The first thing that you need to take notice is the scope of the accuracy. You must ensure that there is enough statistical data set to do a correct measurement. A reliable data should have more than 32 data points. In the case of good trading evaluation, get around 50-100 data set. It is vital to have good reliable measurement, as it will show better performance accuracy.

Secondly, look at the average win/loss ratio. For example, an Expert Advisor has done 15 trades and 10 of these were profitable. This shows a good profitability of 66.6%. However, if you increase your data set to 45 by including the next 30 trades, you might get a different percentage. So let just say the Expert Advisor, in the next 30 trades, manage to have 12 profitable trades.

What can you see?

Total accuracy of the Expert Advisoris only to 22/45 or 48.8%. There is a drastic change just by adding more trading data in the accuracy measurement. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the complete performance with larger data. You do not really have to worry of the drastic changes. Having a larger data to calculate the accuracy will show you the accuracy in the end. So do not base the performance accuracy on short run data. The losing or winning streak might not portray the correct standing of the Expert Advisor. It probably means that there was an unexpected event, causing the short run fluctuation.
Now, let us look at the performance expectancy. Whereas accuracy analysis relies on past data and past performance, expectancy is analyzing past data to obtain future performance.

You might be surprised that performance accuracy does not necessarily mean good profitability. By combining both accuracy and expectancy, you will be able to discern the actual performance of the EA.

Best Forex Robot 2010

Choosing a Metatrader Expert Advisor (part 2)

Borys F — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 04:09:02 GMT

What is a drawdown of an MT4 EA?

This is one of the essential risk indicators when deciding on an EA. A percentage is calculated when the EA trading loses its peak to the trough or in other words, the percentage between the current high point to its next low point. This percentage is known as drawdown and it depict potential drops in value and the general volatility of the Expert Advisor. The first drawdown is done by evaluating the equity curve of the EA. This evaluation is done by reviewing trading charts. Big uneven movements indicate a larger percentage of drawdown. This also shows that the Expert Advisor is volatile.
That is why on the first example EA2 was rejected. The max drawdown is higher than EA3 even when the PF is above 1.

There are three measurement of drawdown that you should be aware of, max drawdown, average drawdown, and drawdown recovery.

Max Drawdown: This is the best indicator in analyzing worst-case scenario. The max drawdown is vital in deciding whether the trader is able to bear the potential risk in regards to the particular EA. Based on the EA historical data, there would be a point the Expert Advisor had hit a high percentage of drawdown. This is the max drawdown and possibly losses had occurred during this time. Now, you have to assume that this drawdown is likely to happen the moment you start trading using this particular EA. Ask yourself whether you are comfortable with the potential risk. If not then you need to consider other EA with lower max drawdown.

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Average drawdown: As the name implies, the average drawdown is the mid percentage of drawdown within the historical data of that particular Forex Robot. To calculate this drawdown, you need to know the total of drawdown and dividing it with how many times, the drawdown occurs. This results in the average drawdown.
It is quite troublesome to calculate, as you would be given a fair amount of data. Nevertheless, this particular analysis is vital in your decision-making. Therefore, if the average drawdown is not provided readily, using the EA, you will need to contact the Forex Robot vendor to get the data. If you find the vendor is reluctant to provide you with the data, reject the Forex Robot and any other EA produced by this particular vendor. This is one of the major warning sign of a poor Forex Robot. In later chapters, we will look deeper into other warning signs.
For the time being, let us focus on the data. Most vendors will be able to provide this data easily. With this information, not only you will be able to discern the average drawdown but you will also be able to see the EA average fluctuation over a certain length of time. Let say, you take the smallest drawdown and the highest drawdown that happen in the last three months. Using the data, you will get the average drawdown of those three months. Therefore, if there is no clear indication of large movement in the market, it is possible the average drawdown the coming month would be similar. Ask yourself again; are you able to bear with the risk involved? Is the risk too high or is it bearable?

Recovery Drawdown: This drawdown show how long it takes, on average, for that particular EA to recover from the lowest point and return to a good positive level. The recovery period is essential in evaluating this EA. Now, we mentioned that volatile MT4 EA is an indication of something that all traders should avoid. However, those with stable historical data would also show a longer recovery period. However, you should not worry on this. Low recovery period also means that it is more stable and steady, require less maintenance, and risk management. Look for this factor on your EA if you are gunning for a steady consistent growth of capital.
In conclusion, on the drawdown analysis, it is good to have all the data for max drawdown, average drawdown, and drawdown recovery. However, it is better if you combine the three analyses in choosing your EA. The combined analysis would show you the level of volatility, how long, in average, for the EA to recover from losses, and if the overall potential risk in using the MT4 EA is tolerable or too risky for you.
For the time being, we are still looking at the second tangible factor on choosing an MT4 EA; Measuring Your Profitability.
Understanding the drawdown is in other words, understanding the risk on using the MT4 EA. Apart from the drawdown analysis, we should look at another item that determines the profitability factor.

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Choosing a Metatrader Expert Advisor

Borys F — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 03:40:12 GMT

Things To Consider When Choosing The Best MetaTrader Trading Robot

Metatrader Expert Advisor, which is also a Trading Bot, is an automatic program that is built to trade on your behalf automatically. Having a Metatrader Expert Advisor or EA is definitely a smart way to trade online; especially when you deal with several platforms.
However, not all EA the same. You need to find an EA that suits your risk level and trading strategy. Therefore, to choose the right EA you need to ask yourself a few questions. These questions will explore the tangible and intangible factors of choosing the best EA.

What Are Tangible factors?

The first thing that we look at is the tangible or quantifiable factors. These factors are the one that we could see, read, and then decided on. For instance, if you a want to buy new Plasma TV, the quantitative factor is looking at the percentage of users buying the same TV from the same brand in comparison to another brand. Alternatively, you choose to buy some product on bulk but with a discount. The variable shows that buying more is cheaper in consideration of buying it individually. However, another variable that affect this decision is whether you need to buy it in bulk or not. There is no point in buying in bulks if you are not using it.
All through this report, we will draw attention to the quantifiable factors that should influence your decision in choosing the right EA. The measures and data that we are going to explore will focus on some of the crucial variables. These must be put under consideration if you want to have the best EA.

Quantifiable Factor Number 1 : Reading Trading Statistic

It is very vital to maintain one trading risk to manageable level. This is one of the important things when choosing a trading robot. One way to look at this is by going through their quantitative stats. If you are beginner, learning how to read this statistic is necessary. Read some books on trading statistic and the usual jargons so you will not be confused.
However, if you have been trading for a while, you should learn how to discern those data to judge the best functioning EA. In the following reports, we will show various examples, together with the statistical data that will feature how traders like you can choose an Expert Advisor. Understand that it is imperative that you make the right decision. This is something that will determine whether you will make profit or loss on trading. Moreover, that margin of loss, if not maintained properly, can be something you cannot afford. Thus resulting in financial difficulties that makes many traders loses their fortune in a single trade.

Quantifiable Factor Number 2 : Measuring Your Profitability.

The reason you trade online is to make profit. Nobody comes to the market and hope to lose money. However, when you have MT4 EA, you need to know a few things. At the end of the trading day, you should expect to have positive returns and not otherwise.
First, look at historical data. Bear in mind that although historical data is not a sign of future performance, it is still ridiculous to choose an EA with a losing record. You would want an EA that could gives you profit instead of losses.
Nevertheless, many Expert Advisor trading robot shows good performance. In this case, you need to compare these EA and choose the best one by measuring quantifiable data. One of the best methods in doing comparison is by looking at each EA profitability factor.
This simple but vital mathematical equation shows whether you can anticipate a positive or negative return on your capital. It also considers another vital risk factor, which we will explore in the following articles.
The profitability factor is the ratio of how much you can profit for each dollar traded over how much you could lose on the same market. The mathematical equation is calculated as follows:
(profit - commission)/(max drawdown + commission)
EA that show a value less than 1 signify an EA with a bad historical data; whereby the returns is much less than the losses and risk. In other words, this EA showed that it has a low possibility to provide you with a profitable trading. Try not to choose any EA with a profitability factor of less than one. Refer below statistics for 3 mock EAs:

Expert Advisor:                      1                                    2                                  3
Initial Deposit               5000                                     4500                           6500
Total Gain                    3200                                     2200                           4335
Total Loss                    2,400                                   1259                            3,890
Commissions                75                                        125                             65
Max Drawdown           350                                       585                             500
Profit Factor                1.706                                   1.149                           0.673

As you can see, EA 3 has a profitability factor (PF) below 1. Even with the limited data, it is already possible to eliminate EA 3. You can also choose to reject EA 2 as it possibly does not meet your minimum requirement of return. Although the PF is higher than 1, the max drawdown data is unconvincing. Max drawdown is an important factor in discerning risk. So let us look more into this particular item and at the same, to understand why it is a critical statistic.

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Expert Advisor based on Stochastic

Borys F — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 03:57:30 GMT

Expert Advisor "e-3stochastic" Introduction

Expert advisor "e-3stochastic" based on tree stochastic oscillators and generate buy/sell signals according the superpositions of oscillators with different parameters. This expert advisor can be use with ECN brokers (market execution) and dealing desk brokers (instant execution) as well.

MarketExecution = false/true

You can use this expert advisor with 4 and 5 digits brokers.

AccDigits =4/ 5

Expert Advisor has build-in adjustable StopLoss and takeProfit
StopLoss = 250;
TakeProfit = 100;

Expert advisor "e-3stochastic" Conception

Expert Advisor will open Buy position if:
(1) (Stochastic1 main line crosses Stoch1.OversoldLevel up)
(2) and (Stochastic2 main line below Stoch2.OversoldLevell)
(3) and (Stochastic3 main line below Stoch3.OversoldLevel)

Expert Advisor will open Sell position if
(1) (Stochastic1 main line crosses Stoch1.OverboughtLevel down)
(2) and (Stochastic2 main line above Stoch2.OverboughtLevel)
(3) and (Stochastic3 main line above Stoch3.OverboughtLevel)
Conditions (2) and (3) are optional.
Close orders on SL, TP, reversed signal.

Download Free expert advisor "e-3stochastic"

Stochastic Indicator Explanation

Stochastic Indicator was developed by George C. Lane in the late 1950s. The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that shows the location of the close relative to the high-low range over a set number of periods. According to an interview with Lane, the Stochastic Oscillator "doesn't follow price, it doesn't follow volume or anything like that. It follows the speed or the momentum of price. As a rule, the momentum changes direction before price." As such, bullish and bearish divergences in the Stochastic Oscillator can be used to foreshadow reversals. This was the first, and most important, signal that Lane identified. Lane also used this oscillator to identify bull and bear set-ups to anticipate a future reversal. Because the Stochastic Oscillator is range bound, is also useful for identifying overbought and oversold levels.Stochastic Divergence

Calculation

%K = (Current Close - Lowest Low)/(Highest High - Lowest Low) * 100
%D = 3-day SMA of %K

Lowest Low = lowest low for the look-back period
Highest High = highest high for the look-back period
%K is multiplied by 100 to move the decimal point two places

http://iticsoftware.com

Expert Advisors for linking MetaTrader to Twitter

Borys F — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 03:21:00 GMT

Twitter very popular social network (micro-blog) that allows you to send short text messages. You can use twitter for provide your friends or customers with information from your MetaTrader 4 account.

BJF Trading Group has developed Free Expert Advisor "MT-Twitter" . This expert advisor links your Twitter account to your MetaTrader platform such that all opens and closes are automatically posted to your Twitter account with the information you want to publicize. Also, BJF Trading Group has developed tool for fully automated twitter API registration. This Expert Advisor helps you to promote your services or products. For example you can post trades from your expert advisor and your followers (subscribers) can check expert advisor's performances. Or if you would like to launch forex signal service, you can post signals from your Metatrader to Twitter account. You can post trades with delay, it will protect you from copying signals.

TimeIntervalForStatusUpdate =10 - variable stores time in seconds for order events checking and twitter status update.

You also can post information about profit from your metatrader account.

DayToTwittProfit=5;
HourToTwittProfit=18;
MinuteToTwittProfit=00;

Read more about free expert advisor "MT-Twitter"

Trade Assisting Expert Advisors

Borys F — Tue, 10 May 2011 02:21:00 GMT

Expert Advisor or Forex Robot is fully automated trading system. But some expert advisors developed for support actions. We mean that the expert advisor does not open/close the orders according trading strategy, but helps the trader to trade. For example very often a trader needs to hide StopLoss level from brokerage company. It will help to avoid manual intervention (non market quotes injection). For this purpose you can use Expert Advisor VirtualStopManager
Some times trader needs to close trades on certain time. For this purpose can be used expert advisor e-Close-TradesSheduller. Or for open trades in the certain time can be used expert advisor e-OpenTradesSheduller.

e-TradeAlerts expert advisor will alert on open , modify, close, delete operations with orders. Sound, email, popup alerts supported.

Metrader Expert Advisor Builder

Borys F — Wed, 06 Oct 2010 14:09:00 GMT

Creating your own Metatrader expert advisor can help you to gain the edge you have been looking for with regards to the foreign exchange market. By creating the perfect forex system, you will be able to dramatically lower your risk, and maximize potential for earnings over a long period of time. When you are using an advisor builder, you will need to consider many different things which will play a significant role in how successful it ends up being. Doing all the necessary back tests is another aspect that you will want to find out about, because without the tests, your expert advisor will be worthless. Doing theses tests will prove that the advisor you have built is able to analyze and recognize weekly trends, so it can make the right trading decisions accordingly.

By using the right builder, you will be able to come up with a simple yet effective expert advisor that will be able to help you reduce the amount of work you do on a daily basis, while still decreasing risk and putting you on top with your trading. There are a lot of different forex systems advertised, but when you have your own person advisor which you yourself built, success is almost guaranteed. You do have to go about building it correctly though, and the first step in that process is finding the right builder. Make sure that you get a tutorial for it, so you will be able to get started right away and not have any issues that might slow you down.

When you know how to properly use the Metatrader expert advisor builder, you will find that you instantly gain the ability to making decisions which will have a direct impact on how it turns out. This means that you will need to be careful when you are creating one, because it will be making important financial decisions for you. Of course, you will still be able to run them over yourself before they activate, but the fact still remains that you will need to build a trustworthy advisor that will be able to make independent decisions on a regular basis.

Looking around on the Internet you will be able to find plenty of builders that will enable you to create a consistent and intelligent advisor to help you with the everyday dealings that are so crucial in helping you to reduce your risk in the market, and increase the amount of money you make each day with the trades. After you initially download the software, you will want to review how to use it. While some of them advertise themselves as being easy to use, that isn’t always the case. With certain builders, you will be able to make an advisor in just minutes, but it might not be the one you want. A good expert advisor will take time to create, so keep that in mind. The last thing you want to do is rush through this process, because you will end up with an expert advisor that can’t give you any really useful market information.

BJF Trading Group inc.
http://iticsoftware.com

Some Useful Information’s about Currency Trading

Borys F — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 18:15:00 GMT

If you are a beginner or new to currency trading business, then you need to know certain concepts that forex currency trading is not a very easy job to do and it needs some great skills in order to perform it better and become a successful trader. For becoming successful in currency trading business, you should understand the concept that currency trading markets are completely unstable as well as unpredictable. So, if you have no experience or knowledge in this process, then it is better not to invest money until you get some knowledge in it. There are chances that it will destroy your entire hard work as well as savings within seconds if you try to perform it with no knowledge or experience.
There are several currency trading banks that would require minimum of 1000 USD for opening up an account. You need to know about a concept in currency trading that huge investment can help you in gaining more returns in this business. However, if you are a beginner then it is recommended to start with small investments for seeing gains. If you know the concept and if you are ready to concentrate on the business with your whole savings, then one fine day you can earn double the money that you have invested in the market.
You can find several information’s available about currency trading in the internet and you can learn as well as gain information’s very quickly. This means that anyone who learns about the currency trading concept can start with a demo account with full confidence for earning money. There are demo accounts that are available for free of cost. Hence you can use that demo account for getting practice and learn more things before investing money in the business.

What is an Expert Advisor?

Borys F — Sun, 28 Mar 2010 17:26:00 GMT

Summary: In order to succeed in the forex market, you need someone or at least something that would help you increase your chances of getting big profits conveniently. This is when the expert advisor comes in handy.

Those who are new in online forex trading are hearing so much about the MQL4 expert advisor and the benefits of utilizing one when trying to succeed in the forex market. However, many are still unaware of what it can do and how the expert advisor really works.

It is a simple code that is written in the programming language called MQL4. As soon as you install it along with the Meta Trader 4, it will automatically close and even close the trades according to your specifications as a user. These codes has rules to follow which will all be based on various forex trading considerations such as the right time to trade, how the trading will be done, and what will be traded. At the same time, it will also allow users to trail the stop levels, stop the loss of investment, and get profit. All of these will be based on various parameters that have been pre-defined prior to its installation.

But how does the expert advisor really works? Also known as EA, it will first do an account checking so it will see if you have enough equity to make trading possible. If in case you do not have sufficient equity, then the code would not run.

On the other hand, if you have enough equity, the EA will start to run, thanks to the set of rules. After a few moments, it will verify if the trade has met the criteria or the trade has already been opened.

Meanwhile, if there are already open trades available, the expert advisor will check if you will get profit or if the program has to stop to prevent further loss. Afterwards, the code will automatically close the trade even without your help. Although automatic, all of the trading strategies will still be based on what you want and how you want the trading to be done.

Expert Advisor

Borys F — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:51:00 GMT

Expert Advisor

Expert Advisor is a fully or partially automatic forex robot, in other words mechanical trading system. The Expert Advisor ( if you switch on "manual confirmation" mode), can inform you about a possibility to trade or trade at an account automatically, (if you switch off "manual confirmation" mode) sending orders directly to the brokerage company.
Expert Advisor can be written on mql4 / mql5 programming languages for metatrader 4/5 platform, Java (FXJava) for DuksCopy, FIX API for Currenex, FXCM etc. Each forex trading platform has a lot of advantages and disadvantages. For automated trading with the expert advisor is the most popular MT4 platform.

Choice of Expert Advisor

Expert Advisors can be divided into several categories, depending on several factors: whether indicators are used for expert advisor or not, whether the expert advisor trades all day and night or only a few hours, what orders are used for trade, and what purposes the expert advisor has. We’ve received many letters with a request to advise the best expert advisor available. Actually, we can’t do it as well as to tell what car is the best one. Each trader has his/her own demands and ideas about the market. I want to emphasize once again that 90% of expert advisor’s success depends on your forex broker. If you took 100 expert advisors, working at good ECN broker, and tried to trade with dealing desk, using them, perhaps, 10 expert advisors, which use limit order trading with big purposes, would show profit. Also, we often receive letters of approximately such contents: “… I like my metatrader broker, I do not want to change it, please, adjust your expert advisor for it...” Think, who is to profit from the working system: a system manufacturer or a market maker? During consideration, take into account that the expert advisor manufacturer will receive more profit, if his expert advisor brings profit, and clients write about it at forums, blogs, leave comments on a website, and the market maker will receive profit, only if you lose your deposit.
If you are successful in manual trade, automation of your trading strategy makes sense. If you do not have a profitable trading system, you can buy a ready-made system - expert advisor. Here are some points to take into account when buying a expert advisor at the manufacturer.

BJF Trading Group inc.
http://iticsoftware.com